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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
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Prosecutors allege that five suspects had operated internet-based gambling services without the required German licences from at least July 2021. The volume of bets placed on these platforms reportedly exceeded €5.8 billion between mid-2021 and the end of 2023.
In addition to illegal gambling, investigators suspect extensive tax evasion, with a projected tax shortfall of about €77.6 million for 2024.
The DSWV, representing licensed sports-betting operators, broadly welcomed the law enforcement action as a necessary response to the illegal market’s growth and associated risks.
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Ultimately, Ahlberg sees the acquisition as opening two possible paths for GiG, with the balance between B2B and B2C likely to depend on how each business performs. “I definitely think this business will become a larger part of GiG,” he concludes.
“And then I guess we will see. I mean if this business really grows fast, then it might become more B2C, but as I see it now, it feels like a kind of a 50-50 story where you have both opportunities there.
“If the B2B starts to grow faster, they might end up doing a bit more of that. If the B2C
does really well, they might end up doing more B2C. So I guess it’s still a bit early to see where it ends up longer term.”
