Boxing Extravaganza

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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

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The review examined the gaming sector and associated money laundering, terrorist financing and proliferation financing risks.

Spillemyndigheden said it contributed actively to this work and sat on FATF’s gaming sector working group. The regulator confirmed that many of the indicators in the report carry relevance for operators licensed in Denmark.

FATF’s warning on illegal and offshore gambling will resonate in Denmark. Last year, Spillemyndigheden secured a court order to block 178 unlicensed gambling sites, the largest such action in the regulator’s history. 

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Christofidou also floated the idea of issuing GMI recipients with a special card for in-person verification at gambling venues, but several MPs warned this could stigmatise welfare recipients.

Current gambling legislation restricts participation for minors and those classified as “financially vulnerable”. However, GMI recipients are not yet formally classified as such for the purpose of these regulations.

The NBA has operated a online self-exclusion scheme since 2024. It requires users to register with a mobile number, email address and ID. Since around 80% of gambling in Cyprus happens online, this route offers a far easier way to identify and exclude claimants than monitoring anonymous betting at physical outlets.