Aztec Idols

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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

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This isn’t the first time this policy has been mooted in the Dutch parliament. A 2025 bill proposed raising the age for “higher-risk” activities like online slots.

Van Bruggen insisted more time was needed to establish whether an age limit hike to 21 would actually have the adverse effect of pushing young people in the Netherlands towards unlicensed offerings.

Among those pushing for the increased age limit were the SGP’s Diederik van Dijk and the CDA’s Tijs van den Brink.